Just 23% of fed workers would be furloughed if the government shuts down, under the Trump administration’s plan

The Trump administration is planning to furlough around 550,000 federal employees on Wednesday if Congress fails to act before government funding expires late Tuesday evening, representing an unusually low less than one-quarter of the workforce. 

The White House is also vowing to oversee large-scale layoffs if a government shutdown occurs, though that would play out through a separate process than the one that sends home certain employees only until funding is restored. In the last 15 years, administrations have typically prepared to furlough between 35% and 40% of the federal workforce. 

The White House, through the Office of Management and Budget, maintains some latitude in the exact consequences of a shutdown. Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay. Different administrations have taken varying approaches in determining who gets furloughed and who works.

Most of the change stems from two agencies: in a shutdown this week, the Trump administration would allow the entire Internal Revenue Service to continue working using funds provided in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. In preparation for a potential funding lapse in 2024, the Biden administration had planned to furlough more than half of the agency. The Defense Department on Wednesday would send home around 45% of its 741,000 civilian employees. In 2024, the Pentagon would have furloughed more than 100,000 additional workers. 

Like most federal agencies since President Trump took office, IRS and Defense have slashed significant portions of their workforces in recent months. 

Not all agencies have provided updated plans. Of the 30 largest agencies, 11 have not posted new plans this year despite OMB requiring agencies to submit new documents by Aug. 1 of this year. Government Executive’s analysis uses the most recently available plans as a substitute in those cases. 

Agency furlough plans are not set in stone. In the record-setting 2018-2019 shutdown during Trump’s first term, some agencies were forced to increase the number of employees it furloughed as the shutdown dragged on. Other agencies, meanwhile, began calling employees back to the office as the lengthy shutdown caused more scenarios to crop up that the administration deemed as exempted work.

In the current scenario, the Smithsonian Institution plans to keep all employees working and its museums open by using prior-year funds. It would close museums and furlough most staff once those funds run dry, however. 

The Justice Department noted in plan that its components “may call some employees back to work if the need for their services becomes critical, and furlough others as conditions change.” The Homeland Security Department said it may change its furlough plans if the shutdown drags on more than five days.  

All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working. The Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday estimated around 750,000 employees would be furloughed, though that appeared to rely on outdated shutdown plans. 

Of agencies with updated plans, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Securities and Exchange Commission and Environmental Protection Agency would all furlough the highest rates of their workforces. The departments of Veterans Affairs and Treasury would join Smithsonian in furloughing less than 5% of their employees, while the Social Security Administration and DHS would send home less than 15%.

Even those sending home relatively few workers would cease an array of activities. VA, for example, will continue disbruiting benefits and providing health care to millions of veterans, but the department will pause career counseling, outreach efforts, cemetery grounds maintenance and operations at some of its call center hotlines,  

If agencies follow through on issuing layoffs, the impact would be delayed as affected workers would generally receive 60-days notice before the terminations took effect. OMB advised agencies they may revise their layoff plans once the government is reopened. 

The Government Accountability Office, which enforces the Anti-Deficiency Act, the law that governs federal spending during shutdowns, found the Trump administration acted unlawfully during the 2018-2019 funding lapse. GAO said the Interior Department violated the law when it used recreation fees collected by the National Park Service to keep parks open and continue services such as trash collection and restroom maintenance. It also faulted the Agriculture Department for disbursing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits early during the shutdown

Neither agency had posted its updated shutdown plan as of Tuesday afternoon. Interior typically plays a high-profile role during shutdowns, as the decision to close National Parks or keep them open is among the most public-facing impacts of a funding lapse. Department officials told staff Tuesday afternoon that Interior does not yet have an OMB-approved shutdown plan, according to an employee present for the briefing and a recording obtained by Government Executive. The officials did not know when they might receive approval for their plan. 

Many federal agencies sent a message to employees Tuesday afternoon with nearly identical language blaming congressional Democrats for the impasse for holding up a stopgap funding bill “due to unrelated policy demands.”

“A funding lapse will result in certain government activities ceasing due to a lack of appropriated funding,” agency leaders said to their workforces. “In addition, designated pre-notified employees of this agency would be temporarily furloughed.”